<big id="zlbd1"><big id="zlbd1"></big></big>
      <video id="zlbd1"></video>

        <em id="zlbd1"></em>

        <big id="zlbd1"><span id="zlbd1"><thead id="zlbd1"></thead></span></big>

          <pre id="zlbd1"><sub id="zlbd1"><progress id="zlbd1"></progress></sub></pre>

                立即打开
                新加坡放弃“零容忍”抗疫,成为首个“拥抱”病毒的国家

                新加坡放弃“零容忍”抗疫,成为首个“拥抱”病毒的国家

                Simon Willis 2021年08月25日
                新加坡谨慎的重新开放可能有助于其他“零新冠病毒”国家。

                2020年1月23日,新加坡出现首例新冠肺炎确诊病例。在之后的几个月里,这一城邦国家在没有采取封锁措施的情况下成功控制住了新冠肺炎疫情,也因此而备受赞誉。通过有针对性的旅行限制和积极的密接者追踪等措施,新加坡的新冠肺炎病例数量一直保持在较低水平。

                然而,随着新冠肺炎疫情开始在全球大流行,新加坡也被迫采取更严格的措施。2月8日,新加坡总理李显龙承认,由于本土出现越来越多无法追踪的病例,“试图追踪到每一个接触者可能是徒劳的”。接着在3月,新加坡又迎来一波输入性病例的爆发,也促使政府进一步收紧了政策:2020年3月23日,该国对所有短期签证持有者和游客关闭了边境。

                这个决定对新加坡来说是一场经济和生存上的灾难。作为东南亚最重要的商贸中心,新加坡发达的经济和重要的地位正是取决于其开放性。根据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的数据,航空运输业或直接、或间接地向新加坡提供了375,000个工作岗位——约占劳动力的10%。该行业每年为GDP贡献360亿美元,约占总量的12%。自从边境关闭以来,向来以高效著称的新加坡樟宜机场(Changi Airport)的运力仅为新冠肺炎疫情前的3%,而这带来的后果可想而知。该国经历了史上最严重的衰退,政府不得不花费1,000亿美元、或者说GDP的20%来支撑经济。

                现在,新加坡对新冠肺炎疫情的态度发生了转变。该国即将成为第一个从对新冠肺炎疫情“零容忍”转变为“允许人类和病毒共存”的国家。新加坡的新方法和与之地位相似、有时被视为其竞争对手的中国香港形成了鲜明的对比,中国香港于2020年3月25日关闭边境。这两个城市——与亚洲的其他许多地方一样——都曾经采用“零容忍”的抗疫战略,采取社交距离政策,以及就新加坡而言,一边通过旅行限制和入境隔离来控制输入病例,一边在当地实行封锁,以根除本土的病例。在一年多之后的现在,新加坡正在小心翼翼地谋求重新开放,而中国香港政府则宣布了一系列新的入境检疫限制。

                并不是说新加坡会让生活一下恢复新冠肺炎疫情前的常态。它选择慢慢来。首先,新加坡为自己设定了一个极高的疫苗接种标准:除非该国80%的人口都已经接种完两剂疫苗,否则,新加坡是不会重新开放的。相比之下,英国在大约65%的疫苗接种率之下就实行了完全解封。其次,即使在9月初达到这个门槛时,新加坡也将采取循序渐进的方式,而不是一下子完全放开。9月8日,一些旅居海外的新加坡居民将被允许在回国后免除隔离——但这只限于两个疫情风险较低的国家:文莱和德国。目前,佩戴口罩仍然将是强制性的,密接者追踪应用程序也将继续使用,餐馆仍然需遵守晚上10:30关门的宵禁规定。

                也许新加坡的谨慎看起来会适得其反,拖缓经济复苏,并且让想要离开本国的人们更加失望。但从长远来看,它可能会起到积极作用,甚至可能为其他想要解封的亚洲国家提供经验教训。

                新加坡的抗疫经历要分成两个阶段。第一波是发生在新加坡的外来移民劳工中,他们被隔离在狭小、卫生条件很差的宿舍里。一旦新冠病毒进入这些集体宿舍,就几乎不可能阻断其传播。去年,约有55,000名工人的检测结果呈阳性,但最近的一项研究证实,实际数字超过150,000人。新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)苏瑞福公共卫生学院(Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health)的副教授许励扬说,尽管新冠肺炎的病例数很高,但新加坡还是“非常幸运”。“因为移民劳工大多年轻、健康,因而重症率低。”

                第二波更为温和的大流行发生在更广大的人群中。一系列严格的措施把移民劳工关在宿舍里,防止新冠肺炎疫情扩散出去,在2020年的大部分时间里,社区的每日新增病例数量一直保持在个位数。迄今为止,新加坡只有49人因为感染新冠病毒而死亡。

                尽管全球旅游航线已经基本停飞,但新加坡政府正在忙着向全世界提醒该国的枢纽地位,想要充分利用这一作用。为了把国家捧为“安全的避风港”,新加坡在樟宜机场新建了一家商务酒店。这家名为Connect@Changi的酒店的设计理念包含一个“生物安全泡泡区”(bio-secure bubble),供其对面的国际会议使用。此外,新加坡政府还为经济价值较高的商务和外交旅行安排了绿色通道,并让新加坡代替瑞士豪华的滑雪胜地达沃斯,成为世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的举办地。新加坡与世隔绝,好像已经准备好欢迎其他国家进入其“秘密洞穴”一样。

                但是,德尔塔变种病毒成为了拦路虎。英国在疗效试验仍然在进行的情况下与多家制造商签订了新冠疫苗合同,而新加坡不同,其在选择辉瑞(Pfizer)和Moderna之前,一直在等待确凿数据的公布。这一决定却推迟了新冠疫苗的到达。今年1月至5月,新加坡仅对20%的国民注射了新冠疫苗。今年6月,当新加坡的一个渔港和几家卡拉OK酒吧爆发德尔塔变种病毒时,接种率数字仅为40%。

                德尔塔变种病毒摧毁了新加坡重新开放的努力:世界经济论坛被取消,香格里拉对话(Shangri-La Dialogue)也被取消。“新冠肺炎疫情表明,对付旧毒株的措施对传染性更强的德尔塔变种病毒并不奏效。”许励扬说,“我们保守了许多,再重新开放之前,我们的目标是提高人口接种新冠疫苗的比例。”

                新加坡正在接近这一目标。最近几周,新冠疫苗的供应迅速增加。自7月初以来,人口疫苗接种率已经从40%上升到76%——这给了新加坡对抗新冠病毒过程中的一个额外的缓冲。“我们知道,犯错的后果没有那么严重了。”新加坡新跃社科大学(Singapore University of Social Sciences)的经济学家沃尔特?齐斯拉说,“今年早些时候,后果还曾经很严重。”

                今年早些时候被取消的几项大型活动将在未来几个月陆续进行。由新加坡的主权财富基金——淡马锡(Temasek)组织的生态繁荣周(Ecosperity Week)会议将于今年9月举行。11月,米尔肯研究所(Milken Institute)将举办亚洲峰会(Asia Summit),随后是彭博新经济论坛(Bloomberg New Economy Forum)。香格里拉对话(Shangri-La Dialogue)的组织机构——国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的执行主任詹姆斯?克拉布特里称:“我的看法相当乐观,这些大型线下活动将在今年下半年归来。”他接着补充说:“政府的发展方向已经明晰。他们认识到新加坡是一个枢纽,必须重新开放。新冠疫苗不是灵丹妙药,但它是解决问题的关键。”。

                如果新冠疫苗是解决问题之关键,那么谨慎就是机制中的“润滑剂”。新加坡本国的新冠肺炎疫情可能得到了控制,新冠疫苗接种率也很高,但东南亚的其他地区,新冠肺炎疫情仍然在泛滥。几个月来,由于新冠病毒在大量未接种新冠疫苗的人群中激增,印度尼西亚一直是全球新冠肺炎疫情的中心之一。马来西亚的新冠肺炎病例数量也在急剧上升,新冠肺炎疫情的严重性甚至损害了国民对总理穆希丁?亚辛的支持,导致亚辛于8月16日辞职。

                新变种病毒出现在新加坡“家门口”的风险很高。新加坡采取的重新开放策略是平衡风险和回报的学问——计划在秋季举行的会议和峰会,正是向世界展示新加坡重返正轨的一个机会,与此同时,一种新的变种或许会像德尔塔变种病毒破坏世界经济论坛一样,轻易地破坏这种努力。

                从长远来看,新加坡的谨慎则是一种声誉管理方法。重新开放不是一件大事,而是一个过程——这表明,即使危机继续,你也可以继续保持开放状态。“过去几年间,企业衡量风险的方式的确发生了很大变化。”穆迪分析(Moody 's Analytics)驻新加坡的亚太区首席经济学家史蒂夫?科克伦说:“在这之前,我不确定企业们是否真实考虑了与黑天鹅事件相关的公共政策流程,但他们现在肯定这么做了。采取了合理、慎重措施的国家,将会遥遥领先。”(财富中文网)

                编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

                2020年1月23日,新加坡出现首例新冠肺炎确诊病例。在之后的几个月里,这一城邦国家在没有采取封锁措施的情况下成功控制住了新冠肺炎疫情,也因此而备受赞誉。通过有针对性的旅行限制和积极的密接者追踪等措施,新加坡的新冠肺炎病例数量一直保持在较低水平。

                然而,随着新冠肺炎疫情开始在全球大流行,新加坡也被迫采取更严格的措施。2月8日,新加坡总理李显龙承认,由于本土出现越来越多无法追踪的病例,“试图追踪到每一个接触者可能是徒劳的”。接着在3月,新加坡又迎来一波输入性病例的爆发,也促使政府进一步收紧了政策:2020年3月23日,该国对所有短期签证持有者和游客关闭了边境。

                这个决定对新加坡来说是一场经济和生存上的灾难。作为东南亚最重要的商贸中心,新加坡发达的经济和重要的地位正是取决于其开放性。根据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的数据,航空运输业或直接、或间接地向新加坡提供了375,000个工作岗位——约占劳动力的10%。该行业每年为GDP贡献360亿美元,约占总量的12%。自从边境关闭以来,向来以高效著称的新加坡樟宜机场(Changi Airport)的运力仅为新冠肺炎疫情前的3%,而这带来的后果可想而知。该国经历了史上最严重的衰退,政府不得不花费1,000亿美元、或者说GDP的20%来支撑经济。

                现在,新加坡对新冠肺炎疫情的态度发生了转变。该国即将成为第一个从对新冠肺炎疫情“零容忍”转变为“允许人类和病毒共存”的国家。新加坡的新方法和与之地位相似、有时被视为其竞争对手的中国香港形成了鲜明的对比,中国香港于2020年3月25日关闭边境。这两个城市——与亚洲的其他许多地方一样——都曾经采用“零容忍”的抗疫战略,采取社交距离政策,以及就新加坡而言,一边通过旅行限制和入境隔离来控制输入病例,一边在当地实行封锁,以根除本土的病例。在一年多之后的现在,新加坡正在小心翼翼地谋求重新开放,而中国香港政府则宣布了一系列新的入境检疫限制。

                并不是说新加坡会让生活一下恢复新冠肺炎疫情前的常态。它选择慢慢来。首先,新加坡为自己设定了一个极高的疫苗接种标准:除非该国80%的人口都已经接种完两剂疫苗,否则,新加坡是不会重新开放的。相比之下,英国在大约65%的疫苗接种率之下就实行了完全解封。其次,即使在9月初达到这个门槛时,新加坡也将采取循序渐进的方式,而不是一下子完全放开。9月8日,一些旅居海外的新加坡居民将被允许在回国后免除隔离——但这只限于两个疫情风险较低的国家:文莱和德国。目前,佩戴口罩仍然将是强制性的,密接者追踪应用程序也将继续使用,餐馆仍然需遵守晚上10:30关门的宵禁规定。

                也许新加坡的谨慎看起来会适得其反,拖缓经济复苏,并且让想要离开本国的人们更加失望。但从长远来看,它可能会起到积极作用,甚至可能为其他想要解封的亚洲国家提供经验教训。

                新加坡的抗疫经历要分成两个阶段。第一波是发生在新加坡的外来移民劳工中,他们被隔离在狭小、卫生条件很差的宿舍里。一旦新冠病毒进入这些集体宿舍,就几乎不可能阻断其传播。去年,约有55,000名工人的检测结果呈阳性,但最近的一项研究证实,实际数字超过150,000人。新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)苏瑞福公共卫生学院(Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health)的副教授许励扬说,尽管新冠肺炎的病例数很高,但新加坡还是“非常幸运”。“因为移民劳工大多年轻、健康,因而重症率低。”

                第二波更为温和的大流行发生在更广大的人群中。一系列严格的措施把移民劳工关在宿舍里,防止新冠肺炎疫情扩散出去,在2020年的大部分时间里,社区的每日新增病例数量一直保持在个位数。迄今为止,新加坡只有49人因为感染新冠病毒而死亡。

                尽管全球旅游航线已经基本停飞,但新加坡政府正在忙着向全世界提醒该国的枢纽地位,想要充分利用这一作用。为了把国家捧为“安全的避风港”,新加坡在樟宜机场新建了一家商务酒店。这家名为Connect@Changi的酒店的设计理念包含一个“生物安全泡泡区”(bio-secure bubble),供其对面的国际会议使用。此外,新加坡政府还为经济价值较高的商务和外交旅行安排了绿色通道,并让新加坡代替瑞士豪华的滑雪胜地达沃斯,成为世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的举办地。新加坡与世隔绝,好像已经准备好欢迎其他国家进入其“秘密洞穴”一样。

                但是,德尔塔变种病毒成为了拦路虎。英国在疗效试验仍然在进行的情况下与多家制造商签订了新冠疫苗合同,而新加坡不同,其在选择辉瑞(Pfizer)和Moderna之前,一直在等待确凿数据的公布。这一决定却推迟了新冠疫苗的到达。今年1月至5月,新加坡仅对20%的国民注射了新冠疫苗。今年6月,当新加坡的一个渔港和几家卡拉OK酒吧爆发德尔塔变种病毒时,接种率数字仅为40%。

                德尔塔变种病毒摧毁了新加坡重新开放的努力:世界经济论坛被取消,香格里拉对话(Shangri-La Dialogue)也被取消。“新冠肺炎疫情表明,对付旧毒株的措施对传染性更强的德尔塔变种病毒并不奏效。”许励扬说,“我们保守了许多,再重新开放之前,我们的目标是提高人口接种新冠疫苗的比例。”

                新加坡正在接近这一目标。最近几周,新冠疫苗的供应迅速增加。自7月初以来,人口疫苗接种率已经从40%上升到76%——这给了新加坡对抗新冠病毒过程中的一个额外的缓冲。“我们知道,犯错的后果没有那么严重了。”新加坡新跃社科大学(Singapore University of Social Sciences)的经济学家沃尔特?齐斯拉说,“今年早些时候,后果还曾经很严重。”

                今年早些时候被取消的几项大型活动将在未来几个月陆续进行。由新加坡的主权财富基金——淡马锡(Temasek)组织的生态繁荣周(Ecosperity Week)会议将于今年9月举行。11月,米尔肯研究所(Milken Institute)将举办亚洲峰会(Asia Summit),随后是彭博新经济论坛(Bloomberg New Economy Forum)。香格里拉对话(Shangri-La Dialogue)的组织机构——国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的执行主任詹姆斯?克拉布特里称:“我的看法相当乐观,这些大型线下活动将在今年下半年归来。”他接着补充说:“政府的发展方向已经明晰。他们认识到新加坡是一个枢纽,必须重新开放。新冠疫苗不是灵丹妙药,但它是解决问题的关键。”。

                如果新冠疫苗是解决问题之关键,那么谨慎就是机制中的“润滑剂”。新加坡本国的新冠肺炎疫情可能得到了控制,新冠疫苗接种率也很高,但东南亚的其他地区,新冠肺炎疫情仍然在泛滥。几个月来,由于新冠病毒在大量未接种新冠疫苗的人群中激增,印度尼西亚一直是全球新冠肺炎疫情的中心之一。马来西亚的新冠肺炎病例数量也在急剧上升,新冠肺炎疫情的严重性甚至损害了国民对总理穆希丁?亚辛的支持,导致亚辛于8月16日辞职。

                新变种病毒出现在新加坡“家门口”的风险很高。新加坡采取的重新开放策略是平衡风险和回报的学问——计划在秋季举行的会议和峰会,正是向世界展示新加坡重返正轨的一个机会,与此同时,一种新的变种或许会像德尔塔变种病毒破坏世界经济论坛一样,轻易地破坏这种努力。

                从长远来看,新加坡的谨慎则是一种声誉管理方法。重新开放不是一件大事,而是一个过程——这表明,即使危机继续,你也可以继续保持开放状态。“过去几年间,企业衡量风险的方式的确发生了很大变化。”穆迪分析(Moody 's Analytics)驻新加坡的亚太区首席经济学家史蒂夫?科克伦说:“在这之前,我不确定企业们是否真实考虑了与黑天鹅事件相关的公共政策流程,但他们现在肯定这么做了。采取了合理、慎重措施的国家,将会遥遥领先。”(财富中文网)

                编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

                For a few months after Singapore detected its first case of COVID-19 on Jan. 23, 2020, the city was credited for its ability to control the pandemic without resorting to a lockdown. Targeted travel restrictions and aggressive contact tracing kept cases low in the city.

                Yet as COVID became a global pandemic, Singapore was pushed to adopt more dramatic measures. On Feb. 8, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong admitted that it might be “futile to try to trace every contact” as more untraceable local cases emerged. Then a March wave of imported cases drove the government to take drastic action: It closed its border on March 23, 2020, to all short-term pass holders and tourists.

                That decision has been an economic and existential catastrophe for Singapore. As Southeast Asia’s most important trade and business hub, its wealth and raison d’être depend on openness. According to data from Oxford Economics, air transit supports, either directly or indirectly, 375,000 jobs in Singapore—about 10% of the workforce. It contributes $36 billion a year to GDP, about 12% of the total. Since the borders shut, Changi, Singapore’s famously efficient airport, has been running at just 3% of its pre-pandemic capacity—with predictable results. The country has endured the deepest recession in its history, and its government has had to spend $100 billion, or 20% of GDP, shoring up the economy.

                Now Singapore is changing direction. The country is about to become the first to go from a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19 to one that will allow COVID to become endemic in its population. Its new approach is a contrast to that of its counterpart and sometimes-rival Hong Kong, which closed its borders on March 25, 2020. Both cities—like many other places in Asia—adopted a “COVID-zero” strategy, using social distancing and, in Singapore’s case, lockdowns to eradicate local cases of COVID-19 while using travel restrictions and inbound quarantine to control imported cases. Now, more than a year later, Singapore is cautiously reopening, while Hong Kong’s government has announced a raft of new inbound quarantine restrictions.

                Not that Singapore will allow life to return to normal. It is choosing to take it slow. First, it has set itself an unusually high bar for vaccination: It won’t begin to reopen until 80% of its population have been double-jabbed. By contrast, Britain lifted restrictions with about 65% fully vaccinated. Second, even when it reaches that threshold in early September, Singapore will reopen with a whimper rather than a bang. On Sept. 8, Singaporeans will be allowed to travel without quarantining on their return—but only to two countries with low rates of COVID-19, Brunei and Germany. For the time being, mask-wearing will remain mandatory, contact-tracing apps will remain in use, and restaurants will still have to abide by the 10:30 p.m. curfew.

                Singapore’s caution may seem counterproductive, slowing its economic recovery and further frustrating a population eager to get off their island. But it is likely to pay off in the long run and may even hold lessons for other Asian countries searching for a way out of lockdown.

                Singapore’s COVID story is a tale of two pandemics. The first took place among Singapore’s population of migrant workers, who are sequestered away in cramped, unhygienic dormitories. Once COVID got inside these compounds it was almost impossible to stop its spread. Last year around 55,000 workers tested positive, but a recent study confirmed that the real number was over 150,000. Despite the high case count, Singapore “got very lucky,” says Hsu Li Yang, an associate professor at the city’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health. “Most of the migrant workers are young and healthy, and the rates of severe disease remained low.”

                The second, much milder pandemic took place among the population at large. A set of draconian measures kept the migrant workers shut away in their dormitories to prevent infection from spreading, and for most of the last year, daily infections in the community have been in the single digits. To date, only 49 people in Singapore have died of the virus.

                Anxious to remind the world of the country’s hub status even as global travel was grounded, Singapore’s government attempted to capitalize on this success. Touting the city-state as a safe haven, it built a new business hotel at Changi Airport. Called Connect@Changi, the hotel was designed as a bio-secure bubble for face-to-face international meetings. The government also arranged green lanes for high-value business and diplomatic travel and offered Singapore as an alternative venue for the World Economic Forum, which usually takes place in the ritzy Swiss ski resort of Davos. Singapore was a hermit nation that seemed ready to welcome others into its cave.

                The Delta variant barred the way. Unlike Britain, which signed vaccine contracts with several manufacturers while efficacy trials were still ongoing, Singapore waited for firm data before making its choice of Pfizer and Moderna. This decision delayed the arrival of doses. Between January and May Singapore jabbed just 20% of its people. By June, when Singapore suffered its own outbreak of Delta at a fish port and several karaoke bars, the figure was only 40%.

                The Delta variant killed Singapore’s efforts to reopen: The World Economic Forum was canceled, as was the Shangri-La Dialogue, a security conference that had 23 visiting defense ministers on its roster of delegates. “The outbreaks showed us that the measures that worked against the older variants were not effective against the more transmissible COVID-19 variant,” says Hsu. “We became a lot more conservative and aimed for a higher percentage of the population to be vaccinated before we opened up again.”

                Singapore is now reaching that point. In recent weeks, vaccine supplies have ramped up rapidly. Since the start of July, the rate of vaccination has risen from 40% to 76%. This gives the country an extra buffer against the virus. “We know the consequences of making an error are not that big anymore,” says Walter Theseira, an economist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences. “Earlier this year, they were huge.”

                Several big events, of the kind that were canceled earlier this year, are scheduled to go ahead in the next few months. Ecosperity Week, a conference organized by Temasek, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, is due to take place in September. It will be followed in November by the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit and the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “I am genuinely optimistic that these big in-person events are going to return in the second half of this year,” says James Crabtree, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organizes the Shangri-La Dialogue. “You can see where the government is going. They recognize that Singapore is a hub, and they have to reopen. Vaccines are not the magic bullet, but they are the key to unlock this.”

                If vaccines are the key, caution is the grease in the mechanism. Singapore’s own COVID situation may be under control and its vaccination rates high, but the rest of the region is awash with the virus. For several months now Indonesia has been a global epicenter of the pandemic, as COVID has surged through a largely unvaccinated population. Malaysia is also enduring a sharp rise in cases—so much so that it helped undermine support for the country's prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, who resigned on August 16.

                The risk of new variants on Singapore’s doorstep is high; its reopening strategy is about balancing that risk with reward. The conferences and summits planned for the fall are a chance to show the world Singapore is getting back to business. A new variant could scupper that effort as easily as Delta scuppered the WEF.

                In the longer term, Singapore's caution is a method of reputation management. Reopening successfully is not an event but a process—and one that shows you can stay open as the crisis morphs. “The way businesses measure risk has really changed a lot over the last couple of years,” says Steve Cochrane, chief economist for APAC at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. "I’m not sure firms really took into account public policy processes related to black swan events before the pandemic, but they definitely do now. Countries that have taken a reasonable, measured approach will come out ahead.”

                最新:
                • 热读文章
                • 热门视频
                活动
                扫码打开财富Plus App